The Penultimate College Football Playoff Rankings — What It All Means

The next-to-last CFP rankings are out and boy are they . . . something. Teams barely losing that plummet. Teams getting destroyed that slip a spot. But why? Let’s see.

Seven teams still have a shot.

1. Ohio State — No real surprise here. The real question comes next week if both OSU and LSU win. Who gets the spot? Both play Top 10 teams (more on that later) and both resumes are increasingly similar (though there is some committee influence in play on that too — again, more later). I think if both win, it’ll come down to who wins most convincingly on Saturday, which favors OSU since Wisconsin is a much more inferior opponent than Georgia. Also, barring getting beat by three touchdowns, I think OSU is in even if they lose.
2. LSU — Same here. Barring an absolute blow out, LSU is in even if they lose. If they beat Georgia by more than three scores, the case for #1 is pretty dang strong. More on the LSU-OSU discussion below.
3. Clemson — They win, they in. Lose and they might need some help. Despite Dabo’s whining the last few days about lack of respect and whatnot, the fact remains that Clemson has zero (that’s none) Top 25 wins right now. Their best win is against a now five-loss A&M team that LSU just beat 50–7 (Clemson won by 14). If they lose to Virginia, a one-loss LSU, Georgia, OSU, Utah and Oklahoma/Baylor all have stronger resumes as each would have at least one Top 25 win and a better loss. So don’t lose Dabo.
4. Georgia — Win or see you in the Sugar Bowl. No other scenarios for them.
5. Utah — And here we get to the folks that need help. Utah needs Clemson or Georgia to lose and they obviously have to win. Since the committee has them ahead of Oklahoma/Baylor now, they are in the drivers seat if Georgia loses and #4 comes down to Utah or the Big 12 Champ. But if Utah struggles with Oregon and the Big 12 championship is a blow out either way, expect Utah to get jumped. Especially if Baylor blows out Oklahoma.
6. Oklahoma-Must win and needs Clemson and/or Georgia to lose. Utah losing would be nice too. Since they are behind Utah now, they will have to give a more convincing performance in their game to leap Utah should they both win. That’ll really be a toss up.
7. Baylor — Same as Oklahoma except I think they have a better shot to leap Utah than Oklahoma does. Baylor’s one loss is to Oklahoma, so if they avenge that loss in the Big 12 championship game, I think that’s quite an argument against the loss (especially considering the lead they had in that game too).
8. Wisconsin
9. Florida
10. Penn State
11. Auburn
12. Alabama

And here is where the politicking comes in. Wisconsin moves up 4 spots, past Florida, Penn State, and Alabama, to land at #8. I mean, I get them beating Minnesota was big, but really? Can someone rationally explain how Wisconsin, with a blow out loss to OSU and a loss to 6–6 Illinois, is ranked higher than Florida (close losses to #2 LSU and #4 Georgia) or Alabama (closes losses to #2 LSU and #10 Auburn). I mean really, what would that Bama-Wisconsin line be? Of course, it all has to do with selling the Big 10 championship game, and, I think, artificially bumping up OSUs resume. But I might be biased. I just know neither Bama nor Florida lost to a 6–6 team.

So, if all the favorites win, whose #1?

LSU should be the #1. Call me biased, and that’s fine, but let’s look at the wins. Here’s the likely playoff rankings after the championship weekend:

1. LSU/OSU
2. LSU/OSU
3. Clemson
4. Utah/Oklahoma
5. Utah/Oklahoma
6. Georgia
7. Florida
8. Penn State
9. Auburn
10. Alabama
11. Baylor
12. Wisconsin
13. Michigan

Rest stay the same for the most part.

That leaves the resumes like this:

LSU: #6 Georgia, #7 Florida, #10 Auburn, #11 Alabama, @ Texas

OSU: #8 Penn State, #12 Wisconsin, #12 Wisconsin, #13 Michigan, #21 Cincinnati

Now we can argue whether beating Cincinnati at home is a better win than beating Texas at Texas all day, but every one of LSU’s top 4 wins (rank wise) is better than each of OSU’s top 4.

What I think happens:

OSU rolls Wisconsin again. LSU wins by two scores over Georgia but the win is not as “convincing” as OSU’s over an inferior Wisconsin. So OSU is #1 and LSU is #2. Clemson takes #3. I think Utah beats Oregon, Oklahoma beats Baylor, and Utah beats out Oklahoma for the #4 spot.

If LSU loses, it’s OSU, Clemson, UGA, and LSU.

If OSU loses, it’s LSU, Clemson, OSU, and Utah.

If OSU and LSU both lose (good lord), it’s Clemson, UGA, OSU, and LSU.

And as always, let the band play Neck.