Matt Osborn
The second week of the College Football Playoff rankings were released last night, and the teeth-gnashing hath commenced. With so many more games to play, the rankings really do not matter save for one — Georgia being above Alabama — as it sets the standard for the rest of the season about the discussion between the two. Essentially, the committee has said that as long as both teams win out, Georgia gets the nod over the Tide. And they are not wrong considering Georgia would be the SEC East and SEC Champion and have also beaten the team that beat Alabama (LSU). Now some might say, “But they lost to South Carolina?” It doesn’t matter — Georgia would have better wins than Alabama, a tougher schedule, and the SEC hardware. There’s no discussion. But that is assuming Georgia wins.
In the meantime, here are the current scenarios.
Six teams control their own destiny (the top 4 plus Minnesota and Penn State). The rest need help.
1. LSU — If they win out, they are in. But, LSU can lose to either A&M or Georgia (not both) and still likely be in. It only gets weird if LSU loses to Georgia and then Penn State or Minnesota beats Ohio State. See below.
2. Ohio State — Win out and they are in. A close loss to Michigan might not matter, but a loss to Penn State would likely keep them out of the Big 10 Championship game and make things a lot more interesting, especially if either Penn State or Minnesota won the championship. In that case, either of those teams would be in for sure, and Ohio State is then hoping that either Clemson or Georgia loses. I don’t think they fall below Alabama with just one close loss. The juicy scenario is if Georgia beats LSU and Penn State/Minnesota beats Ohio State — what one-loss team stays in, LSU or Ohio State?
3. Clemson — Win out. If they lose, they are likely out, with one caveat. I think a one-loss Clemson still gets in before a one-loss Alabama. Last year’s championship game will just be too much to overlook.
4. Georgia — If they win out, including a win in the SEC Championship against LSU, they are in 100%. Any loss kills their chances.
5. Alabama — And here we go. Bama needs help and that help is Georgia, Minnesota, Penn State, Oklahoma, and Baylor all need to lose. If LSU or Ohio State just have one loss, they are still above Alabama. And like I mentioned above, I don’t see the committee putting Alabama in before Clemson, no matter how bad a Clemson loss is. They also need Auburn to beat Georgia as that may be Bama’s best win of the season (so far the best win is against three-loss A&M). An undefeated Minnesota or one-loss Big 10 Champ Penn State gets in above Bama. Same for an undefeated Baylor or one-loss Big 12 Champ Oklahoma. So guess what Tide fans, you are now cheering for Auburn, Ohio State, LSU, and Texas. Let that sink in for a while.
6. Oregon — They need to win out and win with authority. They also need Georgia to lose for sure (preferably to Auburn) and would greatly appreciate it if Auburn beat Alabama. Oregon’s issue is that they will only play two ranked teams this year — Auburn and Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game. And they lost the first one. Worse for them, Auburn could very well have four losses by the end of the year. Best case, Auburn beats UGA and Bama, and Oregon moves to the driver’s seat in the #4 spot. The middle case is Auburn beats either Georgia or Alabama, which would knock one of the two out of the way for Oregon to move up, and it limits how bad their loss to Auburn looks. Worst (and most likely) case, Auburn loses to both, and Oregon is left to argue their Pac-12 Championship should trump both UGA and Alabama, both of which beat the four-loss team that beat Oregon. That’ll likely prove tough, and the only way you do that is to destroy everyone else on the schedule, including Utah. Finally, they need Baylor and Minnesota to lose, and maybe even Oklahoma. If Minnesota beats Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship Game, both an undefeated Minnesota and a one-loss Ohio State will get in before Oregon. A one-loss LSU team gets in before them too.
7. Utah — See Oregon, but worse. Utah’s loss is to unranked USC, the same team Oregon destroyed by 32 a few weeks ago. Utah has no ranked wins and has played no ranked opponents. Their best win would be against Oregon, who has their own issues. Unlike Oregon, would might could squeeze in if Georgia, Baylor, and Minnesota all lose, Utah needs those three to lose plus Bama.
8. Minnesota — And this is where it gets fun. Chaos city potential here. Certainly, if they lose, they are done. So they have to win out, including beating Ohio State or Penn State (again) in the Big 10 Championship. They also have the toughest road to get there (along with Baylor) with games against ranked Iowa and Wisconsin still to go in the regular season.
9. Penn State — If Penn State wins out, they are in. They would have beaten Ohio State and potentially avenged their loss to Minnesota in the Big 10 Championship game. They’d be ahead of a one-loss Ohio State, a one-loss Alabama, anyone from the Pac-12, and maybe a one-loss LSU (if LSU loses to UGA). Either way, they’d be in.
10. Oklahoma — This may be the weirdest one. Even if Oklahoma wins out, they need significant help. They need Georgia, Oregon, Utah, and anyone from the Big 12 besides Ohio State to all lose, maybe even Clemson too. I think they would jump Alabama as the Big 10 conference champ (not to mention the Jalen Factor), but not a one-loss PAC-12 champion, Ohio State or LSU. So they need LSU and Ohio State to win out (which kills off the Penn State and Minnesota threat) and have the #3 and #4 spots up for discussion (or just the #4 if Clemson wins out). That is a lot to go down and a lot of convincing to do, which isn’t helped by barely beating Iowa State at home.
11. Florida — The only way this happens is if Georgia falls off the rails (losing to both Auburn and A&M), and Florida finds itself in the SEC Championship game against LSU. And beats them. Even then, it’d be anarchy as LSU might still have the advantage with only one loss versus Florida’s two and a 1–1 record head-to-head.
12. Auburn — Auburn is really the only spoiler at this point. Sorry War Eagle fans. They can beat UGA and Bama but still need LSU to lose its next three games (that’s Ole Miss, Arkansas, and A&M) to even get into the SEC Championship. Then it’s either beat UGA (again) or Florida and hope that madness ensues all across the country so that they, with two losses, can slip in. Not likely.
13. Baylor — Theoretically, Baylor should control its own destiny. I mean, if they win out, they would be undefeated and the champions of a P5 conference with wins on Oklahoma and Texas. But, does Baylor go in over a one-loss Ohio State or LSU? I’m not convinced. So they need Ohio State and LSU to win out, which would eliminate the rest of the SEC and Big 10. And yes, I think an undefeated Baylor would get picked over a one-loss Alabama or either Oregon or Utah. The bigger problem, though, is going undefeated as they have quite the road still to go with Texas and Oklahoma upcoming, and then one of those two again in the Big 12 Championship Game. They are ranked so low now because they have only played one ranked opponent and that was #25 Oklahoma State. But if they beat Oklahoma and Texas in back-to-back weeks, they jump to #5, where they would wait for LSU to knock out Georgia and Ohio State to keep Penn State and Minnesota out of the mix.
The scenarios are fantastic, and there is plenty of opportunity for chaos, starting this weekend. Georgia/Auburn and Oklahoma/Baylor will have direct impacts on all four teams and indirectly affect almost everyone. Not to mention Minnesota having to face another Top-20 opponent at Iowa and the potential for letdowns (that would be my own Bayou Bengals).
What do you think? Any scenarios or possibilities I missed? Let me know!
